“If there’s a Trump victory: Expect more and higher tariffs, which could disrupt trade and be inflationary, and hurt “the consumer discretionary, industrials, and information technology sectors,” in the view of UBS, the financial services company. Mr. Trump would probably manage to lower taxes and increase the budget deficit, stimulating the economy but, again, goosing […]

“Why would Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan Chase), Brian Moynihan (Bank of America), Jane Fraser (Citi), Charlie Scharf (Wells Fargo), Tim Cook (Apple), Doug McMillon (WalMart), and scores of others show up to kiss the ring of a man they privately mock? It isn’t because Joe Biden’s administration has been bad for business: Corporate profits are at […]

At its core, the dollar’s dominant role in the world draws from the United States’ democratic principles. It is supported by the massive size of its economy, the depth of its markets, and the strength of its institutions and the rule of law.

The Congressional Budget Office’s new projections earlier this month found that fully extending the TCJA would add more than $4 trillion to cumulative fiscal deficits over the next decade. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget calculates that this would push the national debt to 132% of GDP by 2034, compared to 116% in the […]

“The U.S. enjoys a “safe harbor premium.” It is viewed globally as among the most sound and stable places on Earth in which to invest. That results in lower borrowing costs for U.S. citizens, companies and government entities, and more abundant foreign investment.

Currency markets have started pricing in elevated foreign exchange volatility around the US vote on Nov. 5, even with election day almost six months away.

“Financially speaking, the United States has been a Teflon nation. Bad things happen — near defaults, giant budget deficits, a Capitol invasion — but nothing sticks for long. The world’s investors keep pumping money into the country”If the United States becomes dysfunctional enough, global investors will rationally conclude that the safe haven isn’t safe anymore…Brinkmanship […]

“Freedom to participate in the labor force drives growth by bringing more people into the economy, while the free flow of knowledge and ideas drives entrepreneurship and innovation. And the rule of law, upheld by strong and independent institutions, gives individuals and firms the predictability and confidence they need to invest and grow their businesses. […]

“Whether its genesis is slow and quiet or sudden and violent, rising autocracy threatens the most fundamental values of free people, including their rights of liberty and self-determination.”

Already, the government’s spending and the accompanying deluge of Treasury issuance has been making investors anxious. The BNP team said a Republican sweep of the White House and Congress would likely lead to an extension of tax cuts for individuals, and a wider deficit.